It’s that time again: the now well-established Mobility Move industry event at Berlin’s Estrel Hotel has opened its doors once more. The conference is jointly organised by the VDV Academy of the Association of German Transport Companies (VDV) and the DEVK Insurance Group.
Across around 7,500 m² of exhibition space, international exhibitors from the fields of e-mobility, autonomous driving, and IT & digitalisation are represented. The conference programme is built in particular around the forums “VDV Electric Bus Conference”, “VDV Future Congress on Autonomous Driving in Public Transport”, and “AI & Digitalisation”, alongside several other thematic conference tracks.
As always, our magazine will present an exclusive overview of the many vehicles on display, along with a summary of the latest trends and key conference presentations.
The mobility move 2026 conference and exhibition, held at the Estrel Congress Center in Berlin, once again served as a barometer for the state of public transport across Europe. With electric buses now firmly established as the industry default for new fleet procurement, attention has shifted decisively toward the next horizon: autonomous mobility, data-driven operations, and the structural reforms needed to fund the transformation.
This year’s programme combined keynote addresses and panel discussions with an extensive exhibition floor featuring established OEMs alongside newer technology players. The mix reflected an industry at a genuine inflection point — technically capable of transforming itself, but facing persistent questions about political will, financial frameworks, and the pace of regulatory change.
Mobility as a Social Right: The Futurist View
The opening keynote by futurologist Tristan Horx set a deliberately provocative tone. His central argument — that mobility must be understood not as a commercial service but as a prerequisite for social participation — resonated strongly in a room full of public transport professionals grappling with accessibility deficits in rural and peri-urban areas.
Horx challenged the industry to resist what he called a culture of problem-framing, arguing that the constant rehearsal of obstacles was preventing meaningful forward momentum. Demand for mobility in Europe, he argued, will continue to grow across all modes — aviation, road and rail — and cannot be stopped. The question is whether the sector responds with transformation or inertia.
“Every time someone starts a sentence with ‘The problem is…’, take two steps back. That is not where solutions are built.”
Drawing on demographic and economic projections, Horx pointed to the growing mismatch between mobility demand and current supply models — particularly in ageing populations with limited access to private vehicles. He called for innovation that is simultaneously technological, cultural and structural, and argued that self-confidence, not just funding, is what the sector most urgently needs.
Autonomous Driving: A System Redesign, Not a Technology Swap
The most substantive technical presentation of the day came from Thomas Drewes of Deutsche Bahn AG, whose team has spent the past two years developing a detailed scenario study on the role of autonomous driving in Germany’s public transport network. His central message was unambiguous: autonomous vehicles should not be deployed merely to replace bus drivers one-for-one. The technology’s real value lies in enabling a wholesale redesign of how mobility is structured and funded.
“Autonomous driving is not an end in itself. It is not a pure technology project, and it is not a futurist fantasy. The decisive question is: what role can and must it play in public transport to make mobility sustainable, efficient, affordable and universally available?”
Three Scenarios, One Clear Winner
Drewes presented findings from a three-scenario modelling exercise conducted by Deutsche Bahn in collaboration with an academic advisory board. The Base Scenario examined what would happen if the technology were deployed within the existing transport framework — essentially using autonomous buses to do what drivers do today. The Competition Scenario modelled the effects of economic disruption and privatisation pressures. The Daseinsvorsorge Scenario — the basic provision model — went further, redesigning the entire mobility offer from scratch around actual demand.
The conclusion was stark: deploying autonomous vehicles purely to fill existing driver vacancies or reduce operating costs would represent a significant underuse of the technology’s potential. Only the Daseinsvorsorge model delivered the full range of social, economic and environmental benefits.
Closing the Rural Gap
Central to Drewes’s argument was the rural mobility deficit. In large parts of Germany, commercially viable public transport simply does not exist — routes cannot be operated profitably, so they are not operated at all. Autonomous fleets, with dramatically lower operating costs, could change that arithmetic fundamentally.
In the Daseinsvorsorge scenario, Drewes projected that average waiting times could be reduced to five minutes in urban areas and thirteen minutes in rural ones — a level of service quality comparable to the private car and potentially sufficient to shift travel behaviour at scale.
“In rural areas, there is currently no service at all, because it cannot be operated profitably. Germany and Europe need their own concept for autonomous mobility — one that reflects our actual mobility habits and road capacity constraints.”
Scale, Cost and the Financing Question
The figures involved are significant. Achieving the modal shift projected in the Daseinsvorsorge scenario — raising public transport’s share of total journeys from 15 to 35 per cent by 2045 — would require approximately one million autonomous vehicles in operation across Germany, compared to the roughly 70,000 buses currently in the VDV and ÖPNV fleet.
The gross additional cost of this transition was estimated at €60 billion. Drewes was direct about the challenge, but also about the model his team developed to address it. By building user revenues and a congestion pricing element into the financial architecture, the modelling showed that the system could actually cost the state 20 per cent less in annual subsidies than the current network — once the transition is complete. Individual households switching from private car ownership could save up to €150 per month.
“The money exists. Around 95 per cent of current mobility expenditure is locked into private car use. This concept activates that capital for a genuinely attractive public mobility offer.”
Drewes also highlighted the economic opportunity: a properly deployed autonomous mobility transition in Germany would generate an estimated €74 billion market for vehicles, software, digital services and technical support roles.
Pilots Before Scale
Drewes was careful to temper ambition with realism. Full national deployment is not a near-term prospect, and he argued that the immediate priority must be well-designed pilot regions that test operating models, vehicle formats, payment structures and passenger behaviour at meaningful scale. Technology costs must still come down, and user adoption requires time and incentive. A bridge financing mechanism will be needed to cover the transition gap — but the long-term economics, he argued, are sound.
The Structural Challenge: Funding, Fragmentation and Workforce
Panel: Tim Dahlmann-Resing (VAG / VDV) · Alexandra Reinagl (Wiener Linien) · Prof. Knut Ringat (RMV / VDV) · Ingo Wortmann (SWM / VDV President)
The panel discussion brought together four of the most senior figures in German-speaking public transport, and the conversation was candid. The headline concern was financing: panel members identified a structural Modernisierungslücke — a modernisation funding gap — estimated to require at least €1.5 billion annually just to prevent further infrastructure deterioration, alongside an additional €8.5 billion for meaningful expansion.
VDV President Ingo Wortmann argued that closing this gap requires not only increased public funding but a fundamental change in how the sector articulates its value to politicians and the public. “We need to demonstrate what we deliver, and make the case that investment in public transport is investment in economic productivity — not a subsidy,” was the essence of his argument.
The Deutschlandticket received measured praise. Wortmann noted that while the flat-fare national ticket had achieved a meaningful step towards digitisation, it had also exposed the depth of the country’s ticketing fragmentation: Germany still operates more than 250 separate apps and over 150 independent ticketing systems. True interoperability — a seamless, pan-German mobility platform — remains a work in progress.
Alexandra Reinagl of Wiener Linien provided a useful comparative perspective. Austria, she noted, benefits from greater regulatory freedom to test autonomous vehicles without safety drivers, a structural advantage over the more cautious German regulatory environment. The lesson for Germany, several panellists agreed, was not simply to wait for national consensus but to create framework conditions that allow bolder regional experimentation.
The data ownership question emerged as a recurring theme. Ringat argued that transport operators must begin treating operational data as a strategic asset — not simply sharing it with vehicle manufacturers by default, but managing it actively to drive innovation and improve service planning.
From Prototype to Platform: The Exhibition Floor
Autonomous Shuttles
The exhibition offered a clear picture of where autonomous vehicle development stands. Two projects stood out.
UE Uedelhoven Studios has unveiled the SUE as a people mover shuttle for local public transport, specifically designed for practical everyday use – serving as a reliable link where current transport services end. The SUE reaches speeds of up to 50 km/h, enabling realistic deployment on public roads – significantly faster than previous shuttle pilot projects. The SUE deliberately breaks with the approach of automating production vehicles. Instead, the vehicle has been completely redesigned and features an entirely new vehicle architecture – tailored to the real-world requirements of passengers and autonomous operation.
Karsan presented its well-known e-ATAK model as autonomous shuttle concept operating for ÜSTRA Hannover: a fully automated Level 4 vehicle, eight metres in length with 22 seats, designed from the outset for integration into scheduled public transport operations rather than as a standalone demonstration.
The HOLON autonomous shuttle attracted significant attention for its operational specifications: a 150 kW (200 hp) powertrain, empty weight of 3,600 kg, maximum speed of 60 km/h and up to eight hours of operational range. With capacity for 15 passengers (seated and standing), Mobileye Drive SAE Level 4 automation, and a low entry height of 270 mm, the vehicle is designed as a practical service tool rather than a concept study. Also present among autonomous mobility exhibitors were Waymo, NeMo and StaffEye, reflecting the increasingly international character of the sector.
Digital Mobility: ioki
ioki presented its analytics platform as infrastructure for the data-driven transit operator of the near future. The platform supports demand modelling, route optimisation and on-demand service planning — tools that become increasingly important as operators seek to make the case for new services in low-density areas where traditional fixed-route models cannot be justified.
A Trolleybus Revival?
Among the more striking exhibitor stories was Škoda Group’s presentation of the Škoda 33Tr — an 18-metre, three-axle articulated trolleybus designed for high-capacity urban corridors. Fully low-floor and equipped with regenerative braking, the vehicle’s key differentiator is its battery capability, allowing approximately 25 km of off-wire operation and significantly expanding its useful network reach.
Škoda announced a substantial German-market order from the operator in Esslingen am Neckar: 46 firm vehicles — both 12-metre Škoda 32Tr and 18-metre 33Tr variants — with options for 15 additional units, six of which have already been activated, bringing confirmed deliveries to 52 vehicles. First deliveries are expected in summer 2026, with the full fleet in service by year end. The order signals renewed confidence in battery-trolleybus technology as a flexible, zero-emission solution for mid-sized German cities.
Bus Electrification: The New Normal
The broader exhibition hall confirmed what operators already know: electric buses are no longer a niche proposition. Karsan, IVECO BUS, Solaris Bus & Coach, MAN Truck & Bus, Ikarus, Zhongtong and Škoda Group all presented electric or electrified vehicles, alongside Bosch and other suppliers focused on charging infrastructure and drivetrain efficiency. The commercial conversation has moved on from whether to electrify to how to manage the transition at speed and scale — vehicle procurement cycles, depot infrastructure, grid capacity and total cost of ownership being the live questions.
Bosch also presented the FCPM C100 fuel cell module for city buses at mobility move in Berlin, thereby expanding its hydrogen propulsion portfolio for public transport applications. The new component is a compact hydrogen fuel cell system specifically designed for integration into urban buses.
Outlook: A Sector at a Decisive Moment
The picture that emerged from mobility move 2026 is of an industry that knows what it needs to do and has, in many cases, the technology to do it — but that remains constrained by funding structures, regulatory fragmentation and a political environment that has not yet fully aligned behind the scale of investment required.
The autonomous mobility debate has matured significantly. The conversation has moved from feasibility to deployment logic — from ‘can it work?’ to ‘what system architecture delivers the most value?’ Deutsche Bahn’s scenario study represents a serious attempt to answer that question on a national scale, and its findings suggest that incremental deployment will not be enough. Only a demand-oriented, fully integrated autonomous network can deliver the modal shift and the financing model that justifies the investment.
Electrification, meanwhile, is becoming infrastructure in the most practical sense: a precondition for everything else. As battery-electric and trolleybus technologies mature and procurement volumes grow, the operational and financial case becomes progressively clearer. The Esslingen trolleybus order is a reminder that not every solution needs to be novel — sometimes proven technology, updated and adapted, is exactly what an operator needs.
The central challenge that mobility move 2026 could not resolve — because no conference can — is the funding question. Without a sustainable, predictable and politically durable financing framework, the transformation that the technology and the operators are ready to deliver will remain partial. That, in the end, is the argument that the industry must win outside the conference hall.
12.03.2026
